Projected changes in the n <scp>ear‐future</scp> mean climate and extreme climate events in northeast Thailand

This study provides an assessment of changes in mean and extreme climate northeast Thailand, focusing on the near-future period (2021–2050). Spatiotemporal extremes return values are investigated compared to 1981–2010. Climate model-related uncertainties quantified using 14 models from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) 8 6 (CMIP6). CMIP6 have a higher sensitivity external forcings as ensemble suggests increase maximum minimum temperatures by 1.45°C (0.8–1.9°C) 1.54°C (1.1–1.9°C) under high emission scenario, which is greater than CMIP5 ensemble: 1.10°C (0.5–1.7°C) 1.13°C (0.7–1.6°C), respectively. No significant annual rainfall projected, although it will be temporally more uneven with decreases (6–11%) during pre-rainy season (March–May) increases (2–8%) rainy (June–October). The bootstrap analysis technique shows inter-model for projections reduced 40% CMIP5. number hot days twofold warm nights, threefold. Near-future experience intensity, decrease days, 20-year 1-day consecutive 5-days (>30%). In addition, shortened future onset retreat delayed, may implications agricultural activities basin since cultivation primarily rainfed. These findings suggest that anthropogenic significantly amplify extremes. results useful managing climate-related risks developing adaptation measures improve resilience towards potential hazards.